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Lok Sabha election results: 2019 is more like 1977 and 1980 than 2014 elections

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The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has firmly established itself as the dominant pole of Indian politics in the 2019 general elections.

If the current trends hold , the 2019 verdict will have a close resemblance to the results of the 1977 and 1980 elections in terms of the dominance of one political party in India. Data scarped from the Election Commission of India (ECI) website shows that at 11:03 am, around 19% of the total votes had been counted in the country. The BJP is leading in 288 parliamentary constituencies (PCs) with a vote share of around 40%, nine percentage points more than what it had in 2014.

No political party in India has had such a high level of vote share after the 1984 elections, which were held in an extremely polarised environment months after the assassination of the then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi by her Sikh bodyguards. The Congress had a vote share of 48.1% and it won 415 PCs in the 1984 elections.

The 2019 results, if the current trends hold, will be closer to what the Janata Party and the Congress achieved in the 1977 and 1980 elections. In 1980, the Congress won 353 PCs with an all-India vote share of 42.7%. In 1977, it was the Janata Party which got 295 PCs with a vote share of 41.3%.

The 2019 verdict, or what it looks like as of now, also has some regional exceptions to the overall trend, like in 1977 and 1980. Even though the Janata Party swept the northern region of the country in 1977, the Congress performed really well in Andhra Pradesh (41 out of 42 PCs) and Karnataka (26 out of 28 PCs). Similarly in 1980, the Congress could win only 4 PCs in West Bengal despite winning the majority of seats in almost all major states.

As of now, the BJP and its partners in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) are either leading or making major advances in all major states except Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, which are voting clearly for the Dravida Munnetra Kazhgam (DMK) led alliance and YSR Congress Party respectively.

The Congress, despite adding around four percentage points to its 2019 vote share has not been able to make any significant gains in terms of seats. Also, the party has suffered major reverses in the Hindi heartland states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh where it defeated the BJP in the 2018 assembly elections.

After the 2014 elections, when the BJP crossed the half way mark in the Lok Sabha with just 31% vote share, lack of opposition unity was seen as a key factor behind the party’s victory. With the BJP all set to cross the 40% vote share mark, the opposition will have to reinvent its chemistry with the electorate rather than just arithmetic.

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Delhi continues to sizzle today as IMD predicts 46 degree Celsius

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Delhi and its nearby areas such as Noida, Gurugram, Faridabad and Ghaziabad continue to experience heat wave on Tuesday, with India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicting the maximum temperature at 46 degree Celsius.

However, the weather forecasting agency predicted that tomorrow (June 12), the capital will be hit by thunderstorm or dust storm.

Besides, the heatwave in many parts with a severe heatwave in isolated pockets over East Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh are also predicted.

“Heat wave to severe heat wave in isolated pockets over Uttar Pradesh; heat wave in isolated pockets over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Rayalaseema and Tamilnadu,” the IMD stated in its all India weather warning bulletin.

Gale winds speed reaching 90-100 kmph gusting to 115 kmph very likely to prevail over East-Central and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea; 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph over Lakshadweep area, Kerala, Karnataka and south Maharashtra coasts, it added.

Fishermen have been advised not to venture into these areas.

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Cyclone Vayu to turn into severe storm today, may bring heavy rain to southern coast

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A deep depression formed over the Arabian Sea, around 760 km south-southwest of Mumbai, on Monday afternoon, which is likely to bring heavy to very heavy rain in parts of Kerala, coastal and south interior Karnataka, Konkan region, Goa and the Lakshadweep islands, a bulletin of the India Meteorological Department stated Monday.

The system will intensify into a cyclonic storm by Tuesday afternoon and a severe cyclonic storm with wind speed of up to 115 kmph in the next 24 hours, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) warned.

“The deep depression is currently away from the coast and travelling north-northwestwards. It is being closely monitored by IMD and might make landfall in Gujarat, but even if it does not, it is close enough to the landmass that the impact of cyclone will be felt along the Western coast,” said Dr K Sathi Devi, a scientist at the IMD.

Under the influence of the low-pressure system, monsoon advancement will be delayed once it intensifies into a cyclonic storm, she said.

Monsoon hit Kerala on Saturday after a week-long delay.

“When such an intense low-pressure system forms, it pulls in all the moisture-bearing winds towards it, changing the course of the monsoons. Because of the changes in the wind directions, most of the rain from the southwest monsoon will be over the oceans and some areas in the western coast,” Devi said.

The cyclone is likely to be named on Tuesday as it develops into a storm.

Monsoon activity in the southern peninsula will pick up once the low-pressure system moves towards the Gujarat coast. “The cyclonic storm forming over the Arabian Sea will bring heavy rainfall to the Western coastal areas. But, it has affected the progress of monsoon, which was delayed anyway this year. By now, it should have reached Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. The monsoon rains in the interior of the peninsula should pick up after about 48 hours when the cyclonic storm moves towards Gujarat,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice-president, meteorology and climate change at Skymet.

Skymet has reiterated that farmers in southern peninsula and central India should delay sowing for Kharif crops.

The wind speeds will also increase over the next three days. This will result in rough seas along and off the coast of Kerala, Karnataka, south Maharashtra, and south Gujarat.

The IMD has advised fishermen to not venture into Arabian Sea and asked those in deep-sea areas to return to the coast. The rain brought on by the low-pressure system is unlikely to offer any respite from the heatwave to severe heatwave conditions over Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, southern parts of Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh.

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2-year-old Punjab boy, stuck for 110 hours in borewell, dies after being pulled out

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A two-year-old child, who had fallen into a 150-foot-deep unused borewell in Punjab’s Sangrur, has been declared dead. He was pulled out of the borewell on Tuesday morning after a rescue operation of over 110 hours.

Fatehvir Singh was rushed to PGI Chandigarh where doctors declared him dead.

The child was rescued around 5:30 am by National Disaster Response Force personnel. “Fatehvir has been pulled out of the borewell and he is being taken to hospital in an ambulance,” Sagrur Deputy Commissioner Ghanshyam Thori said.

A team of doctors had been stationed at the site of the accident to provide medical assistance along with an ambulance equipped with a ventilator..

The toddler was stuck in the seven-inch wide borewell at a depth of 125 feet. The only child of his parents who had turned two on Monday, he fell into the borewell in a field when he was playing in Bhagwanpura village around 4 pm on Thursday.

The borewell was covered with a cloth and the boy accidentally stepped on it. His mother tried to rescue him, but failed, officials said.

A massive rescue operation was launched to bring the child safely out of the borewell. Officials managed to supply oxygen but no food or water could be provided to him. A parallel borewell of 36 inches in diameter was dug to rescue the child.

On Monday, there was anger among people against the district administration and the state government over the delay in rescuing Fatehvir.

A large number of people had assembled around the accident site and several of them raised slogans against the government. Villagers had also held protest and blocked the Sunam-Mansa road.

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